Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.378618 0.437212 0.500759 0.574654 0.658073 0.749172 0.856036
2025-06-15 0.303573 0.382367 0.474370 0.589177 0.728007 0.889829 1.092051
2025-06-22 0.228479 0.313292 0.419652 0.561587 0.744615 0.971122 1.270873
2025-06-29 0.176788 0.263544 0.380176 0.546150 0.773538 1.071025 1.485901
2025-07-06 0.136332 0.220990 0.342926 0.527674 0.795943 1.165869 1.707683
2025-07-13 0.113197 0.198628 0.329883 0.540592 0.863162 1.329445 2.042708
2025-07-20 0.091282 0.173595 0.308529 0.537904 0.907636 1.466943 2.358679
2025-07-27 0.076157 0.156510 0.296631 0.547988 0.973007 1.643298 2.752913
2025-08-03 0.064126 0.142196 0.286754 0.559773 1.042773 1.834758 3.192276
2025-08-10 0.050165 0.120767 0.260153 0.538096 1.053514 1.933251 3.495748
2025-08-17 0.038301 0.100409 0.231354 0.507194 1.043313 1.995337 3.746031
2025-08-24 0.030967 0.087941 0.215602 0.498364 1.071759 2.126656 4.127235
2025-08-31 0.024679 0.076354 0.199856 0.488136 1.098903 2.263964 4.543630
2025-09-07 0.021216 0.070907 0.196682 0.504108 1.180705 2.512169 5.187941
2025-09-14 0.016394 0.060035 0.178169 0.482691 1.182666 2.609529 5.564317
2025-09-21 0.013027 0.052143 0.165072 0.471216 1.204125 2.747726 6.033700
2025-09-28 0.010237 0.044911 0.151793 0.456569 1.216255 2.868488 6.481806
2025-10-05 0.008828 0.041858 0.149413 0.469196 1.293054 3.132192 7.242661
2025-10-12 0.007279 0.037583 0.142287 0.467826 1.336382 3.329206 7.885567
2025-10-19 0.006245 0.034885 0.139353 0.477545 1.408568 3.597419 8.703536
2025-10-26 0.005394 0.032562 0.137029 0.488630 1.485963 3.885552 9.590439
2025-11-02 0.004205 0.027981 0.125553 0.469922 1.482736 3.988190 10.081240
2025-11-09 0.003160 0.023386 0.112417 0.442909 1.452615 4.023812 10.425402